By John Pickard
By its massive attack on Iranian facilities, the killing of Iranian military and scientific staff – along with an indeterminate number of civilians – Israel has plunged the Middle East into its most serious conflict in fifty years.
After the attack on Iran, Donald Trump, on his mis-named ‘Truth Social’ website, warned that future “already planned” attacks would be “even more brutal”, unless Iran signed up to a deal to end its nuclear programme. That has to be done, Trump, said, “before there is nothing left”.
Israel, Trump added, had a lot of lethal US-made military equipment “with much more to come — And they know how to use it”. In a later post, he added: “Two months ago I gave Iran a 60 day ultimatum to ‘make a deal.’ They should have done it! Today is day 61.” (Financial Times, June 13).
The USA was aware of the impending attack and gave it the green light. Trump confirmed as much In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, when he suggested the US had known ahead of time that the strikes would occur. “It wasn’t a heads-up. It was we know what’s going on,” he said. A few days before, the US had withdrawn the families of US service personnel from the area as well as all non-essential staff.
Half of Israel’s air forced committed to the raid
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has accused Washington, of being “the primary supporter” of Israel, and was now therefore “responsible for the dangerous repercussions” that would follow.
More than 200 Israeli jets and missiles were involved in attacking a hundred targets, mostly in western and central Iran. At least six senior nuclear scientists were killed, as well as several senior military figures including the chief of staff of the armed forces and the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. One of the main targets was the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, 135 miles south east of the capital Tehran and other targets including manufacturing facilities for ballistic missiles.
The Iranian government has declared that the attack was “an act of war” and has vowed to retaliate. The only question is when, where and how Iran will retaliate, because it certainly will. A hundred missiles were immediately launched at Israel, but all of them were intercepted, mostly far from Israel, over Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Iran has limited military options. If it attacks US bases in the area – those in Iraq and Syria are within striking distance – it risks an even greater bombing campaign from US air forces stationed on carriers and on permanent bases in the region.
There are up to 50,000 US military personnel in the region. Both the USA and Israel have a huge preponderance of aerial power and they can be brought to bear on Iranian facilities and military targets.
Iranian leaders would risk losing prestige and influence
On the other hand, the Iranian government cannot be seen to be doing nothing, because that would risk losing prestige and influence abroad and support at home. The Iranian government may calculate, therefore, that a red line has been crossed and that they no longer have anything to lose. US bases in Iraq have been attacked in the past by Iraqi Shia militias – armed and support by Iran – and that may be a strategy adopted, despite the risk of US retaliation.
If Iran doubles down on its uranium enrichment and it faces the prospect of a continuous programme of aerial attacks, month after month, then Tehran will think it has no alternative but to seriously retaliate now, even against US facilities.
Turkey and all of the Arab states in the region have condemned the Israeli attack. The Gulf states are particularly vulnerable to escalation in the region, given that most of them have US bases and facilities on their territories and their oil exports depend on the peaceful negotiation of the Straits of Hormuz, a narrow waterway fifty miles from mainland Iran.
Even before this attack, the reactionary Arab leaders: nearly all kings, sheikhs and generals, must have felt themselves sitting on a volcano, given the huge anger in the Arab world at the genocide in Gaza and the western states’ complicity in it. Netanyahu has now thrown petrol on the flames.
In the light of this attack, the bleatings of Keir Starmer and his calls for Israel to “step back and reduce tensions” are an irrelevency. Here is a ‘Labour’ leader, who has stood by impassively as a genocide has been perpetrated in Gaza, all the while exporting military supplies and trade envoys to Israel and – we now know – allowing IDF personnel to be trained in the UK. History will judge them for their complicity in the bloody ethnic cleansing of Gaza.
It will be the main item at the G7 meeting on Sunday
In Israel, Netanyahu is living the dream: fulfilling a two-decades-old ambition to hit Iranian nuclear facilities, and for the moment he has widespread public support. But if there is a wider war and that impacts on Arab states in the region, and G7 countries beyond that, his actions may in the longer run undermine him more than he planned. That will be even more likely if it becomes clear that Iran’s nuclear capability has not been eliminated by air strikes.
Israel is already a pariah state globally for its barbaric killings in Gaza. Tens of millions of workers and youth have protested against the Gaza genocide. The attack on Iran will only isolate Israel more.
Unfortunately, and as a direct effect of Israeli government policy, antisemitic attacks may increase, with perfectly innocent Jewish people being targeted. Netanyahu has even announced the closure of Israeli embassies around the world (“temporarily”) for fear of protests.
The seven major capitalist countries, the G7, have a meeting scheduled for this Sunday and, without a doubt, Iran will be at the top of the agenda. European political leaders will not thank Trump if there is a major destabilisation in the Gulf, from where much European oil is sourced.
A major war will have serious impact on support for Trump at home: notwithstanding the huge superiority of US arms in the region, a full-blown conflict would inevitably lead to American losses, possible in large numbers, and it could precipitate a global recession as oil prices soar.
It is impossible to predict the repercussions of the Israeli attack, but they will be grave. The geopolitics of the Middle East, the internal political landscapes of the Arab states, of Iran, and of Israel, are all going to be changed irrevocably. The militarisation of all Middle East politics by Netanyahu, emboldened by Trump, will have profound and serious implications in the region, and perhaps on a scale no-one has anticipated.
