By Joe Langabeer
In the past few years, we have seen a flurry of news articles and political commentators discussing declining birth rates across the ‘Western’ world. Not only commentators, but right-wing figures such as Elon Musk, Donald Trump and now Nigel Farage, have sounded the ‘alarm’ that both US and UK birth rates are falling.
It is true: birth rates are declining, with countries like Italy facing the most dramatic falls, alongside many young people leaving the country to find work elsewhere.
Right-wing figures, such as Giorgia Meloni, the Prime Minister of Italy, are increasingly demanding that young people – particularly those deemed ‘native’ to their country – must start procreating to, as they often argue, ‘save’ the native population. This has become known as the “pro-natalist” movement.
It is a racist dog whistle that harkens back to the ‘great replacement theory’, where the right-wing argue that immigrants are slowly assimilating and replacing the native population. This is either by procreating, or—according to some right-wing figures—through deliberate government efforts akin to ‘social engineering’ in favour of immigrants.
Where once this was a fringe belief of the far-right, only muttered in the dark corners of social media and at peripheral meetings, it is now being promoted by the mainstream right at major conservative events. Only a couple of years ago, Musk attended a political festival hosted by Meloni in Italy, where he declared that young people in developed countries must start having “more babies”—a claim he has continued to make, including again this year at the same event.
This rhetoric has prompted dominant forces in right-wing politics to begin shaping policies around declining birth rates—though many of these policies have failed to bear fruit, particularly in the US. During the 2024 US election campaign, the then vice-presidential candidate JD Vance suggested that existing child tax credits should be raised to \$5,000 per qualifying child, up from the current \$2,000. Trump has ludicrously proposed giving medals to couples who have six or more children, though a YouGov/Yahoo polling showed that 64% of Americans disapprove of the idea.
Even Farage has argued, in Reform UK’s party policy, that he would remove the two-child benefit cap—prompting many in the media commentariat to claim the policy stands to the left of Labour’s. What they failed to mention was Farage’s reasoning for removing the cap. It was made very clear at the announcement: Farage wanted the cap lifted to raise the birth rate of the ‘native population’.
Racist, right-wing agenda
Whilst some claim that Farage is promoting a “left-wing” policy, one widely supported by socialists as a way to reduce child poverty, Farage’s motivation is purely to advance his racist, right-wing agenda.
But what the likes of Nigel Farage and the right-wing don’t wish to discuss is why birth rates are falling. In a recent report from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), in association with YouGov, which surveyed 14,000 people across 14 countries, it found that 54% of respondents were not having children due to economic worries. That includes financial limitations, lack of affordable housing with adequate space, lack of childcare options, and concerns over unemployment and job security.
The right often like to claim that it is a “shifting culture” that makes young people—particularly women—not want to have children, blaming it on feminists. They accuse them of shutting men out of wanting to have children. However, when the report asked these questions, including issues such as a lack of a suitable partner or concerns about political situations, all scored low— with the highest being 14% (lack of a suitable partner).
The main issue, as socialists have recognised for a long time, is the economy. It is the crisis of capitalism that makes young people afraid to have children. With a lack of decent-paying jobs; poor working conditions that can see you stripped of your employment; limited opportunities to fight for better conditions; and dire housing situations where, according to the landlord and tenant services provider, Canopy, you might pay over half of your salary on rent—it is no wonder that young people are reluctant to have children when they have so little security over their economic future.
As the Executive Director of the UNFPA, Dr Natalia Kanem, suggested in an interview with Sky News, young people face the struggle of choice, not desire, and there are major consequences for societies if people who want children cannot access better-paid family leave, affordable fertility care, and supportive partners.
Make having children viable and sustainable
Whilst people do need better-paid family leave and affordable fertility care, Kanem does miss the point that the struggles over birth rates do not only relate to access and affordability of fertility treatment, but also to the wider world of work and the conditions that make having children viable and sustainable. The right also seem keen to miss this point—or, at worst, they are actively working to make the lives of young workers more precarious.
Italy is a country that has seen one of the steepest declines in birth rates in Europe, and indeed across economically developed nations. This decline has occurred in parallel with a wave of young Italians leaving the country, and an increasingly inactive workforce caused by a rapidly ageing population. Meloni has sounded the alarm over the decline in ‘native’ Italians and has claimed she wants to make reversing this trend her top policy priority.
However, in an analysis published in the Financial Times, Melanie Debono — an economist at the consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics — suggested that the fiscal policies of Meloni’s government are not having the “desired effect” in addressing population decline. Once again, contrary to what the right claims —and indeed what Meloni argues herself — it is her economic policies that are driving young people away from Italy and discouraging them from having children. Her stances on workplace rights are only likely to drive even more people away.
[photo – Ray Goodspeed]
Last month, Italy held a referendum alongside local elections. There were five questions in total—four concerning labour rights, and one concerning citizenship. The four labour-related questions challenged laws brought in by the Jobs Act in 2016, which allowed companies to legally liberalise the use of fixed-term agency employment; to constrain judicial discretion in unfair dismissal cases; to limit reinstatement following unlawful dismissal; and to protect companies in cases of workplace accidents when using subcontractors.
Trade unions and socialist parties, along with the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), the largest opposition party to Meloni’s government, supported these motions. The fifth question focused on repealing legislation that extended the requirements for acquiring Italian citizenship.
Referendum in Italy
The vote to repeal the anti-worker labour laws won overwhelmingly, with around 87% voting in favour. The citizenship law also received a ‘yes’ vote, though with more mixed support. However, the referendum ultimately failed, as Italian law requires a 50% turnout for referendums to be valid—and turnout was only 30%.
Why? Because Meloni’s government was explicit: she did not want people to vote in the referendum. She, alongside her cabinet ministers and coalition partners—including Matteo Salvini’s far-right Northern League—advocated for people not to vote. She also instructed the state broadcaster RAI not to cover the referendum or provide balanced discussion, a directive now facing a complaint with the Italian communications authority, AGCOM.
Meloni’s stated objection focused on the citizenship law, but her coalition also abstained from the legal challenges to the labour laws. If she had been truly serious about helping young people out of insecure work—so they might feel able to have children—she would have backed the labour reforms. But this reveals the contradiction of the right. The data on economic insecurity and low birth rates is plain to see, yet Meloni sides with the capitalist class and would gladly dismantle the power of trade unions and their working-class members, if given the chance.
She could have abstained from the citizenship vote to uphold her vile rhetoric against people who are not ‘native’ to Italy and still voted in favour changing labour laws. But her disdain extends to the working class too – a working class which, for the most part, was not made aware of the referendum. Yet, among those who were aware—the more advanced and organised sections of workers—there was clear and overwhelming support for the measures to improve labour rights and living conditions.
The same could be said for Farage’s clique at Reform. Yes, he has argued for removing the two-child benefit cap, but he is also quite happy to dismantle the rights of young workers. In his manifesto for the 2024 general election—dubbed a “contract with the people”—it is stated, in as many words, that he wants to make the practice of “fire and rehire” easier for businesses.
Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, has been happy to engage in performative politics by wearing a trade union pin in the House of Commons, yet both he and Farage have attacked any trade union leader who challenges their racist politics.
Young workers hardest hit by Farage policies
They present themselves as “friendly” to workers—until the moment those workers challenge them. And young workers will be hit the hardest by Farage’s policies. The vast majority of gig-economy work is carried out by young people, with 60% of those working in such roles aged 16–34, according to a 2019 report carried out by the Trades Union Congress. Practices like fire-and-rehire are disproportionately used in the gig economy, where workers are treated as the most expendable.
Farage is no friend to young workers—and he is certainly no friend to young workers who want children. Without secure work, they simply cannot afford to start families. Of course, this is already a key reason why many young people are not having children—but Farage would only accelerate that trend, causing an even steeper decline in birth rates.
There is a vital need to highlight the hypocritical role of politicians like Farage and Meloni. They and their allies are the ones making the biggest noise about declining birth rates—yet their policies, particularly Meloni’s, have already proven ineffective in reversing the trend.
Even though there is clear evidence that lifting the two-child benefit cap would help many children out of poverty – and would not be opposed by any genuine socialist – the politics of Farage and the right will only make birth rates worse. They must be challenged for promoting a false narrative and fuelling dangerous theories about immigrants ‘replacing’ native populations.
That said, we should not ignore the issue of declining birth rates. While we must reject the racist rhetoric that immigrants are replacing “natives”, and the claim that this should drive pro-natalist policies, we must still confront the real reason why young people aren’t having children: the crisis of capitalism. Bosses are content to siphon off workers’ wages; landlords are happy to pinch even more; and young people are left with barely enough to feed themselves—let alone raise a child!
Young people are working longer hours, often taking on extra shifts just to cover rent and bills. Recreational activities have become luxuries, increasingly out of reach. According to the ONS, we are now seeing more older parents than ever before. That is a reflection of economic security—older workers are paid more and have more stable jobs.
Socialist response
If we are to take the natalist argument seriously, then we must offer a socialist response. That means better wages for young people. It means placing major economic sectors into democratic public ownership, so that wealth goes to the workers—not CEOs who leech off young workers’ labour. It means banning exploitative gig-economy practices and strengthening trade unions to protect jobs. It means building council houses and reducing dependence on the private housing sector, alongside bringing private developers into public ownership to build those homes – giving young people and their children secure places to live.
We must demand fewer working days and hours each week, so that young people have time to enjoy life and care for their families. We must call for full public ownership of the childcare sector—something akin to a National Health Service for childcare—so parents know their children will be supported throughout the day when they go to work. We need better maternity and paternity pay, along with more time for parents to spend with their children during their early years.
The only real answer to reversing declining birth rates is socialism—and that must be the argument we make to push back against the right-wing, racist narratives of the present.
[Featured photo – https://scitechdaily.com/]
