It is difficult to find the words to describe the seismic significance of the Green Party victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election. It is a shattering defeat for Keir Starmer and the narrow faction which has taken the helm of the Labour Party. It is an important setback for the racists of Reform UK and it points to a means of keeping that nasty party out of office. Last but not least, it is confirmation of the historic decline of the Tories, once the most successful conservative party in Europe.
Even with all the usual caveats about using by-elections to interpret political trends, this result confirms that politics in the UK, like everywhere else, has entered a new historic stage. Whereas most postwar UK elections, were contests between two main parties, with the Liberals or the nationalist parties forming a fringe, modern politics is splintered as never before. Moreover, there will be no going back to the old days.
Putting aside the miserable showing for the Tory Party, which came fourth with less than 2 per cent of the vote, the two big losers here were Nigel Farage and Keir Starmer. The Labour leader was instrumental in keeping Andy Burnham off the ballot paper, not because Burnham was already mayor of Greater Manchester, but because everyone and his dog knew, firstly, that Burnham was more likely to win for Labour, but, secondly, once in Parliament, he was going to unseat Starmer as Labour leader.
So instead of a candidate more likely to win, the Starmer faction imposed a candidate destined to lose. Politics is not about personalities, but the background of the two women standing for Labour and the Greens says a lot.
Labour candidate a lobbyist; Green candidate a plumber
Angeliki Stogia, for Labour, is a professional lobbyist, one of those faceless individuals who flatter, cajole and sweet-talk MPs and minisiters – behind closed doors of course – into adopting policies in the interests of their corporate clients, in this case the global engineering company, Arup.
On the other hand, Hannah Spencer, the Green Party candidate, was a plumber. She even apologised in her victory speech to her customers, “…I think I might have to cancel the work that you had booked in, because I’m heading to parliament”
The Green Party victory also came despite a ‘dirty tricks’ campaign by Labour, who put out a leaflet suggesting that the best ‘tactical’ vote to keep out Reform was a vote for them. Their leaflet quoted a fictitious tactical voting organisation recommending a Labour vote.
The real dynamic behind the Labour defeat was the abandonment of working class and Labour values by the faction around Keir Starmer. Gorton and Denton was a solid Labour area. It was a new seat in 2024, when it won over 50% of the vote, but the make up of its wards is such that the ‘notional’ result for the same constituency in 2019 would have been 67% for Labour.
Labour has thrown away votes because so many Labour voters are thoroughly disgusted with the trajectory of the Labour leadership. From ‘freebies’ for Starmer and Reeves, worth tens of thousands of pounds, to the cut in the Winter Fuel Allowance, to the impoverishment of disabled people on benefits, to the appointment of Mandelson, a long-time crony of Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer has stumbled from one anti-working class policy to the next, from one scandal to the next.
Facilitated genocide in Gaza
And throughout the entire period of this government, Starmer has shown slavish support for an Israeli government which has conducted a genocide in the obliteration of Gaza, a government which is still actively promoting ethnic cleansing of Palestinian areas in the West Bank. Is it any wonder that so many workers, and youth, and Muslim voters have abandoned Labour, when The Labour Friends of Netanyahu have so much influence on government policy?
Starmer has introduced an authoritarian regime inside the party, expelling or suspending lefts on the flimsiest of pretexts, but this is true across government policy as a whole. This supposed ‘centre-left’ government is one of the most illiberal of modern times, for example in the way it has undermined trans rights, banned Palestine Action and cuddled up to the dangerous IT giant, Palantir.
As Labour under Starmer has lurched ever further to the right, the Green Party has stepped in to fill the void left behind. It is not personalities that win or lose elections; it is policy and programme. The Green Party is now putting forward the kind of social and economic policies put forward by Labour in the Corbyn years, and which polls consistently showed at the time were very popular.
Public ownership of utilities that rip off consumers; taxing billionaires who have more money that they know what to do with, but use their money to make more money; ending the private looting of the NHS and public services – these are the kind of Green Party policies that ought to have been embraced by Labour, as they were for a few years under Corbyn.
In an excellent victory speech, Hannah Spencer spelled out the reasons for her victory. “I’m no different to every single person here in this constituency”, she said. “I work hard. This is what we do. Except things have changed a lot over the last few decades, because working hard used to get you something. It got you a house, a nice life, holidays. It got you somewhere. But now, working hard, where does that get you? Because talk to anyone here and they will tell you.
“The people who work hard but can’t put food on the table, can’t get their kids school uniforms, can’t put their heating on, can’t live off the pension they worked hard so save for, can’t even begin to dream about ever having a holiday, ever. Because life has changed. Instead of working for a nice life, we’re working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry and I don’t think it’s extreme or radical to think working hard should get you a nice life.”
Uncertainties and insecurity of everyday life
In echoing the growing dissatisfactions and uncertainties of everyday working class life, Hannah Spencer was tapping into the same well of dissafection that is boosting Reform – but with an important difference. Reform mouth slogans about unaffordable housing and the problems of the NHS, but their entire platform is based on blaming migrants, and Muslims. Meanwhile they are putting together policies to remove workplace protections of employees and the few rights that tenants have.
On this showing, the Greens are destined to take seats from Labour in many constituencies in coming by-elections and at the next general election. They are a growing force in British politics precisely because they have adopted radical policies and have occupied the ground abandoned by Labour under Starmer.
The Green Party has also shown how Reform can be beaten. A radical programme, based on the needs of the big majority of the population – not the narrow super-rich layer at the top – could sweep Reform aside. Reform after all, may be well ahead of other parties in the latest polls, but that is with under 30% of the vote. If there were an electoral alliance and agreements between the Greens, Your Party and the left of the Labour Party – with clear radical policies – Reform could be well beaten. The big question, of course, is how likely is this to happen?
It would seem impossible for Starmer to hang onto office for much longer, despite today’s statement about “fighting on”. His description of the Greens as “extremist” – not believed by any Labour members – shows how out of touch the man is. Political pundits have run out of superlatives to describe the unmitigated grimness that will be the Labour defeats in the May elections.
Last year, two thirds of sitting Labour councillors lost their seats. In May, the proportion is likely to be a lot higher, as seats are lost to Reform, Plaid Cymru, the SNP and the Greens. In the next general election, three quarters of Labour MPs are likely to lose their seats.
So many Labour MPs are chancers, careerists and bureaucrats ‘gifted’ seats by Labour’s right-wing faction. But they are not all stupid and they can see which way the wind is blowing. If Starmer still tries to hang on after the coming disaster in May, it is not impossible that even Labour right-wingers like Streeting may trigger a leadership contest.
A new dynamic can develop inside Labour
As bad as this result is for Labour, the party is not dead, and a leadership contest will open up an entirely new dynamic within it, with a new appetite for debate, discussion, challenge, and, yes, radical ideas again. Labour will not go back to its former position any time soon, either in terms of its internal membership or its electoral base. Too much has happened in the past few years under Starmer. But there will be a possibility of new currents of left opinion developing particularly from its trade union base, as the party faces turmoil in the coming months.
In the near future, therefore, socialists are likely to be fighting on a variety of different fronts: pushing for greater democracy and clear socialist policies in Your Party; continuing to advance a ‘red-green’ agenda in the Green Party; and, not least, fighting to rid the Labour Party of the pro-capitalist infiltrators who have done so much damage in recent years.
The aim of all these socialists should be to bring together the best possible combination of political forces, not only to stop Reform, but to advance genuine socialist ideas as the only basis to defeat the far right. Gorton and Denton demonstrates that the old political balance has changed and it will never be the same again. But is also shows that there is a thirst for radical ideas and policies to address the many issues facing working class people.
The UK is still the fifth or sixth richest country on the planet, the problem being that the wealth is in the wrong hands. Given the wealth and the country’s national resources, socialist policies could make so many desirable things a reality. On that basis it would be perfectly reasonable and possible to expect that everyone, without exception, should have a good, affordable home, a decent living wage, affordable utilities, and adequate provision of services in education and health. These are the simple things that Hannah Spencer suggested was the basis for a “nice life” and these are the things for which socialists are fighting.
[Feature picture is from BBC live feed of Hannah Spencer’s victory speech]
